Quarterback Analysis

There is no good way to track quarterbacks. All of the metrics that even come close to tracking all of the necessary variables contain numerous assumptions, secondary measurements, and occluded decisions. They are the opposite of transparent. On the other hand, especially for players with very small sample sizes, a few “garbage-time” drives at the end of a game can radically alter net passer rating or ANY/A.

Therefore, the Draft Codex tries to strike a balance without overloading the available information. By reporting quarterbacks’ total passing yards and number of games played, it gives a sense of the quarterbacks’ longevity and total contributions. By contrast, by reporting what percentage of their starts are at or above roughly “league average” level (90) for their career, it gives a sense of what level of performance they put forward during that career. Finally, by including the number/rate of high-level games (100+), it helps pull out the high performers. 

It ends up being a compromise, but it’s one that correlates fairly well with tracking overall quarterback success.