Safety Analysis

Safeties attract the fewest picks of any defensive position (only 21 picks a year). Along with corners, they create fewer disruptive plays than the other defensive positions, which makes sense–the defensive backs are doing their job when they are discouraging plays, not stopping them. Unlike many other positions, more safeties become regular starters than reliable contributors, which is possibly explained by the injury rate among defensive backs making it unlikely these players are healthy for 60+ games per five-year span.  

It is also worth noting that safeties are one of the  only positions where first-level performance can be found in all seven rounds, and for the group under study there were more safeties found in the second round who met or exceeded the first-round median as there were first-round players who met the same standard. The performance profile of the position makes it difficult to justify spending high picks on the role.

The typical Day Two edge defender is going to be in the range of a reliable contributor–not a starter–who manages two or three sacks a season. Teams need that depth at edge defender, and twice as many reliable contributors are drafted (102) as regular starters (51), with half of all fourth-round selections ending up being reliable contributors–with a median for the round of 7 disruptive plays per season.